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By Chukwudi Abiandu

Kogi State stands today as a troubling case study in how democratic institutions can be hollowed out and repurposed for the interests of a few. The latest warning from the Movement for the Emancipation of Kogi State (MEKSTA) should serve as a wake-up call — not just for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to whom the petition is addressed, but for all who care about the health and future of Nigeria’s federation.

At the heart of MEKSTA’s appeal is a stark reality: governance in Kogi has been steadily supplanted by a tightly knit family structure. Former Governor Yahaya Bello, though constitutionally out of office since 2024, continues to wield extensive influence over the state’s affairs through his cousin and successor, Governor Ahmed Usman Ododo. Even more troubling is the emergence of Habibat Oyiza Tijani Onumoko, the state’s Accountant-General, as a central political actor — a development that underlines just how deeply entrenched this informal power structure has become.

This concentration of authority in the hands of a few individuals has all but extinguished institutional checks and balances. The state legislature, by MEKSTA’s account, now functions as a mere appendage of the executive, rubber-stamping directives without scrutiny. Local government autonomy has similarly been gutted. Despite receiving substantial monthly allocations, local councils reportedly operate on meagre stipends, undermining service delivery and grassroots development.

Beyond the erosion of democratic norms, the consequences for ordinary Kogi citizens are profound. Insecurity has escalated, with banditry, kidnappings, and targeted attacks claiming lives across the state. Infrastructure remains underdeveloped, and the cost of living continues to rise. This state of affairs is compounded by the fact that key decision-makers, including Bello and Ododo, are often absent from the state, leaving governance to unelected figures.

These developments should alarm Abuja. Kogi’s geographic and strategic importance — bordered by nine states and the Federal Capital Territory — means that instability there could have far-reaching implications. A breakdown of order would not be confined within its borders; it could easily radiate outward, threatening regional security and national cohesion.

MEKSTA’s call for the declaration of a state of emergency is provocative, and rightly so. Such a measure carries weighty constitutional and political implications. It must be approached with caution, and only after other constitutional remedies have been explored. Nonetheless, the petition underscores a broader point: the situation in Kogi demands federal attention, and indifference could prove costly.

There are several pathways available to the federal government short of emergency rule. These include deploying institutional audits to scrutinise governance practices, enhancing security coordination to restore order, and engaging politically with stakeholders to ensure accountability. Strengthening oversight over local government allocations and enforcing constitutional boundaries between branches of government are also essential steps.

Kogi’s predicament is a symptom of a deeper malaise: the fragility of Nigeria’s democratic structures when exposed to concentrated personal power. It is a reminder that the health of the federation depends not only on free and fair elections but also on the resilience of institutions, the independence of state actors, and the vigilance of civil society.

As things stand, Kogi is drifting dangerously close to the edge. Whether or not the federal government chooses the drastic step of declaring emergency rule, it must not ignore the warning signs. Decisive, lawful, and carefully calibrated intervention is urgently needed to steer the state back toward democratic governance and restore public confidence in the system.

Nigeria cannot afford to look away. What happens in Kogi today could well become a template for governance elsewhere if left unchecked. The time to act — thoughtfully, constitutionally, and firmly — is now.

• Chukwudi Abiandu is a Nigerian journalist and public affairs analyst with over four decades of experience reporting on governance, democracy, and public policy.