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Nigeria is once again flirting dangerously with a past it swore never to revisit. The signs are no longer subtle, nor are they accidental. They are deliberate, coordinated, and increasingly brazen. What is unfolding under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu bears an unsettling resemblance to the dark era of Sani Abacha, an era Nigerians remember for its suffocating grip on dissent and its cynical manipulation of democratic structures.

It was during that period that the late Bola Ige famously derided Abacha’s contrived political arrangement as “the five fingers of a leprous hand”, a system designed not for choice, but for control. Today, history appears to be echoing itself, albeit in civilian garb.

A Presidency Intolerant of Opposition

A defining trait of dictatorship is not merely the exercise of power, but the intolerance of opposition. By that measure, the Tinubu administration is ticking dangerous boxes.

Across Nigeria’s political landscape, opposition parties are being systematically weakened, fractured, or outright neutralized. The pattern is consistent: leadership crises, judicial interventions of questionable neutrality, and administrative decisions that disproportionately target opposition structures. The cumulative effect is unmistakable, a shrinking democratic space where dissent is not debated but dismantled.

The ruling party, the APC, is no longer competing; it is absorbing, coercing, and, where necessary, crippling its rivals.

The Wike Factor: Weaponizing Internal Sabotage

Central to this troubling architecture is the curious alliance between the President and Nyesom Wike, a man who nominally belongs to the opposition but operates as a destabilizing force within it.

In Rivers State, this alliance has produced one of the most alarming political experiments in recent history. The crisis that engulfed Governor Siminalayi Fubara did not arise in a vacuum. It was engineered through a combination of federal might, legislative complicity, and political vendetta.

The suspension of democratic structures in Rivers, executed with the backing of a compliant National Assembly led by Godswill Akpabio, raises profound constitutional questions. The imposition of a sole administrator in a federating state is not just irregular; it is a direct assault on the principles of federalism and democratic governance.

This is how democracies die, not always with tanks in the streets, but with institutions quietly repurposed to serve the ambitions of a few.

INEC and the Erosion of Electoral Neutrality

No democracy can survive without an impartial electoral body. Yet, the actions of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in recent times have done little to inspire confidence.

From controversial decisions affecting party leadership recognition to a pattern of actions that disproportionately disadvantage opposition parties, INEC is increasingly perceived not as a neutral arbiter, but as an active participant in the political engineering of a one-party state.

The reported delisting or destabilization of opposition leadership structures, particularly within parties like ADC, SDP, Labour Party, and PDP, fits neatly into a broader pattern. It is a slow, methodical suffocation of pluralism.

Inducement, Coercion, and Political Migration

Another hallmark of authoritarian consolidation is the forced realignment of political actors. Under Tinubu’s watch, Nigeria has witnessed an unprecedented wave of defections, not driven by ideology or policy alignment, but by survival.

Governors, lawmakers, and key opposition figures are being railroaded into the APC through a mix of inducement, intimidation, and strategic isolation. The message is clear: align or be rendered irrelevant. This is not politics; it is political capture.

The Anatomy of a Civilian Dictatorship

Political science offers a clear checklist for identifying authoritarian tendencies:

• Suppression of opposition
• Manipulation of institutions
• Erosion of judicial independence
• Centralization of power
• Use of state machinery for partisan ends

By these standards, the current administration is treading a perilous path.

The judiciary, once the last hope of the common man, is increasingly viewed as compromised. Legislative oversight has given way to legislative compliance. Federal power is being deployed not as a tool for national cohesion, but as an instrument of political dominance.

A Dangerous Precedent

What makes this moment particularly alarming is not just its immediate impact, but its long-term implications. The system being constructed today could outlive its architects, setting a precedent for future leaders to govern without accountability.

Nigeria risks becoming a democracy in name only, a republic where elections exist, but choice does not; where opposition survives, but only in theory.

Nigeria on the Brink

The tragedy of Nigeria’s current trajectory is that it is entirely avoidable. The country has endured military rule, fought for democracy, and paid the price in blood and sacrifice. To now drift back into authoritarianism, under the guise of civilian leadership, is a betrayal of that history.

President Tinubu must decide whether he wants to be remembered as a democrat who strengthened institutions or as a leader who hollowed them out in pursuit of power. Because if the current trend continues, the verdict of history may be harsh, and deservedly so.