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By Abraham Maina Joda

One of the most enduring challenges in Nigeria is not simply bad policies or failed ideas, but how we interpret information once it enters the public space. Too often, we do not examine facts on their merit. Instead, we first ask a silent question: Does this confirm what I already believe? If it does, we accept it. If it does not, we dismiss it.
This habit has shaped how we see issues ranging from religion and ethnicity to public policies and economic reforms. And one of the clearest examples of how this plays out is the long-running narrative around Chinese loans.
The Chinese loans narrative: facts mixed with fear
There is no dispute that Nigeria borrowed heavily from China, largely for infrastructure—railways, roads, and aviation projects. There were also legitimate concerns about debt sustainability and transparency. These concerns deserved serious discussion.
However, what dominated public conversation was a far more dramatic claim: that China would seize Nigeria’s national assets if we defaulted. This claim was repeated endlessly, often without explanation, context, or verification.
Legal terms such as “waiver of sovereign immunity” were presented as proof that Nigeria had been “sold.” Very few people paused to explain that:
Such clauses are common in international loan agreements
They do not mean automatic asset takeover
Disputes typically go through arbitration and renegotiation
What happened was not education, but simplification driven by fear. A complex issue was reduced to a frightening slogan because it resonated with existing distrust.
How bias did the rest of the work
Once the narrative took hold, confirmation bias ensured its survival. Many Nigerians rightfully due to past experiences already believed that leaders mortgage the future carelessly. So any claim that supported this belief was embraced instantly.
Clarifications were ignored. Expert explanations were dismissed as excuses. Nuance was treated as deception. The issue was no longer about understanding debt—it became about defending a narrative.
This same pattern repeats itself across Nigerian society:

In religion, where isolated incidents define entire faiths
In ethnicity, where individual actions become collective guilt
In policy debates, where intent is assumed before facts are examined
Why this matters now: the Tax Reform Laws
Today, Nigeria is debating Tax Reform Laws, and the danger is clear: we are at risk of repeating the same mistake.
Because many Nigerians feel economically strained, suspicious of reforms, or distrustful of institutions, there is a temptation to instantly reject any tax-related policy as anti-people. Once again, snippets of information are circulating—some accurate, some misleading, some deliberately distorted.
The lesson from the Chinese loans debate is not that skepticism is wrong. Skepticism is healthy. The lesson is that unchecked bias is dangerous.
We must not:
Reject tax reforms simply because “government policies are always bad”
Accept alarmist interpretations without reading the full provisions
Share claims just because they sound familiar or confirm our fears
Each policy must be scrutinized on its own merit, not through the lens of past disappointments.
The cost of lazy belief
When societies abandon critical thinking, they pay a heavy price:
Good policies are rejected prematurely
Bad policies escape proper criticism
Public debate becomes emotional rather than intelligent
A country cannot reform its economy, its tax system, or its social contract if citizens are trapped in a cycle of reaction and suspicion without analysis.
A call to Nigerians
This is an appeal—not for blind trust, but for intellectual discipline.
Let us learn to:
Read beyond headlines
Ask what is missing from the story
Separate fear from fact
Challenge information even when it agrees with us
Truth does not always align with our beliefs, and progress rarely comes from comfort.

Final reflection

The Chinese loans narrative should serve as a warning, not a template. It showed us how half-truths, emotional framing, and confirmation bias can overpower reason.
As we debate tax reforms and future policies, Nigerians must resist the urge to default to suspicion or acceptance based solely on bias. Our future depends not just on the policies we adopt, but on how wisely we judge them.
A society that learns to scrutinize information—whether it flatters or offends its beliefs—is a society capable of real progress.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year to you all.

• Abraham Maina Joda is a Media Consultant and a Middle Belt Awareness Advocate.
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