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A security expert, Demeide Master Tony, has declared that Nigeria’s fiscal recovery, energy security, and political stability are heavily dependent on the continued engagement of Tantita Security Services Nigeria Limited (TSSNL), warning that any move to terminate the contract could have far-reaching consequences.

Demeide said the pipeline surveillance firm has, over the past four years, significantly curtailed oil theft, reduced incidents by nearly 80 percent, and helped restore crude oil production to about 1.8 million barrels per day. He added that the company has also generated over 10,000 jobs and contributed to environmental recovery across the Niger Delta.

He cautioned that discontinuing the contract would weaken deterrence mechanisms, destabilize host communities, and potentially plunge the country into economic and political turmoil.

According to him, Tantita’s model should not only be retained but institutionalized as a central pillar of Nigeria’s energy security architecture.

“Tantita’s effectiveness is rooted in globally tested criminological principles. Crime thrives where there are no capable guardians, but the company’s ‘creek intelligence’ framework has made pipelines difficult targets,” he said, citing similar challenges in Mexico’s oil sector when community surveillance declined.

The expert explained that the company’s recruitment of over 10,000 Niger Delta youths has helped strengthen social order in the region, aligning with social disorganisation theory, which links strong institutions and community engagement to reduced crime.

He further noted that increased surveillance and enforcement have raised the risks associated with pipeline vandalism, making such criminal activities less attractive.

Demeide emphasized that by providing employment and livelihood opportunities, Tantita has addressed economic drivers of crime, while also reducing the vulnerability of youths to political manipulation.

Highlighting the company’s operational strategy, he said Tantita combines technology-driven surveillance, including drones and geospatial tracking, with grassroots intelligence gathering through local operatives. He added that the firm works closely with security agencies such as the Police, Navy, NSCDC, DSS, and Joint Task Force to ensure coordinated enforcement and lawful arrests.

He noted that the Nigerian Army Resource Centre has described the company’s approach as a “panacea for national development.”

Citing data from NEITI and NUPRC, Demeide said oil theft dropped by 79 percent in 2023, with production rising to between 1.4 and 1.5 million barrels per day. He added that output increased to 1.6 million barrels per day in 2024 and reached 1.8 million barrels per day by July 2025, saving the country an estimated $18 billion annually.

Beyond production gains, he listed environmental improvements, including a 50 percent reduction in oil spills in 2024, and the disappearance of soot pollution in Port Harcourt. He also pointed to improved maritime security and increased investor confidence in the oil sector.

Demeide further highlighted Tantita’s corporate social responsibility efforts, including agricultural initiatives, infrastructure development, scholarships, medical outreach, environmental cleanup, and vocational training for youths in areas such as ICT, welding, and marine services.

However, he warned that ending the contract could trigger a chain reaction of negative outcomes, including a resurgence of oil theft, decline in production to below one million barrels per day, renewed militancy, environmental degradation, and loss of investor confidence.

He also cautioned that unemployed youths could become tools for political unrest ahead of the 2027 elections, while Nigeria risks losing credibility as a reliable oil supplier.

Demeide advocated the transformation of Tantita’s framework into a permanent Niger Delta Pipeline Security Commission, built on a hybrid model that combines private sector efficiency with state authority.

“Retention is not optional; it is a strategic necessity,” he said. “Tantita has demonstrated that local guardianship works. Removing it would reverse hard-earned gains and threaten national stability.”

Quoting Sun Tzu’s The Art of War, he concluded that effective security depends on actionable intelligence, insisting that Tantita represents the kind of informed, ground-level insight Nigeria needs to safeguard its economic lifeline.